政府介入在文化領域是常見的事，而政府支持的美術館是否能改變大眾的藝術品味，是個有趣的話題。本研究以2005年至2015年在藝術拍賣市場中的所有台灣藝術家為樣本，探討如果在北美館展出後，該畫家有作品進入拍賣市場，「曾展出」這個事件對於拍賣成交價有何影響。拍賣樣本共有11374筆。控制變數包括畫家出生年代、藝術品面積、藝術品種類、畫作創作年份、是否為大拍賣行、拍賣國家等，同時列入拍賣年份變數以作為price index。統計方法採用Hedonic model、Tobit model及Logistic regression model，將「是否在北美館展出後五年內拍賣」列為二元解釋變數，並以交互作用項查看「曾展出」對其他拍賣價格相關變數是否有交互影響。
研究結果顯示，曾經上過北美館展覽很重要，但並不是展出越多次，在拍賣市場上表現就會越好。此外，藉由「曾展出」與其他拍賣價格相關變數的交互作用推論出一種可能性：官方資助的美術館展覽其功能類似認證，一旦畫家接受「認證」之後，作品就進入「評價系統」中，市場會更精細的鑑價。這篇研究為藝術拍賣市場與官方美術館之間的關係提供了實證資料，證實官方美術館展覽是拍賣價格的領先指標，但其因果關係還需要進一步的檢證。

Government intervention is common in the cultural sectors. To investigate how government-sponsored museum exhibitions influence art auction market, we focused on the Taiwanese and Chinese artists and we acquire their global auction data comes from www.artprice.com dated from 2005 to 2015. We use Hedonic model、 Tobit model and Logistic regression model to investigate the relationship.
The results imply that museum exhibition can be viewed a certification agency, but once the artist has been “certified”, exhibition will not contribute to a high hammer price. These results also indicated that government-sponsored museum exhibition can be a leading indicator to auction market performance.

誌謝 ii
摘要 iii
Abstract iv
目錄 v
圖次 vi
表次 vii
1. 前言 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究背景 4
1.3 研究目的與研究流程 7
2. 文獻回顧 8
2.1 藝術拍賣市場 8
2.2 藝術拍賣市場的主要關注議題 9
2.3 藝術品拍賣與美術館展覽 12
3. 研究方法 15
3.1 前言 15
3.2 資料來源 16
3.3 計量模型 18
3.4 變數解釋 21
4. 研究結果 24
4.1 敘述統計 24
4.2 基本結果 27
4.3 進階結果 31
5. 結論 34
5.1 研究結果 34
5.2 研究意涵 35
5.3 研究限制與發展 36
參考文獻 37

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