本研究運用logit的研究模型，採用 OECD等22個國家在1974-2004年間的年度資料，驗證滙率制度的選擇，造成中央銀行總裁在任期未屆滿前遭撤換。
根據過去學術研究顯示，右翼政黨偏好較低的通貨膨脹率，為了維持經濟穩定可能會選擇固定滙率制度；另一方面，左翼政黨傾向維持低的失業率和提高產出水準，可能會偏向支持採用獨立性較高的彈性滙率制度以達成總體經濟目標。基於政黨對於滙率制度不同的偏好，中央銀行總裁是否會因滙率制度的選擇違逆政黨的意識型態而失業?本研究的結果認為，在OECD等22個國家的中央銀行總裁在1974-2004年間可以獨立的選擇滙率制度。

This paper deploy the logit approach model and collect annual data from 1974 to 2004 in 22 OECD countries. It can examine that the option of exchange rate regime may cause the replacements of the governor of central banks during his tenure of office.
According to prior empirical studies shows that the rightist parties favor low inflation, they may choose fixed exchange rate regime for holding monetary stability; otherwise, the leftist parties prefer low unemployment and high production, they may adopt the flexible exchange rate regime to maintain independent monetary policy and to achieve their macroeconomic objectives. Due to diverse political preferences, Does the choice of exchange rate regime disobeyed the political ideology of ruling party will cause that the central bank governors lose their job? Our results manifest that these chairmen of central banks can independently insist and defend their exchange rate regimes in OECD countries.

目 錄
論文審定書……………………………………………………………i
謝誌………………………………………………………………………ii
中文摘要…………………………………………………………………iii
英文摘要…………………………………………………………………iv
壹、前言………………………………………………………………………………1
一、研究動機…………………………………………………………………………2
二、研究目的…………………………………………………………………………4
三、研究範圍…………………………………………………………………………6
貳、相關文獻…………………………………………………………………………7
一、政府意識型態……………………………………………………………………7
二、滙率制度………………………………………………………………………9
三、中央銀行的獨立性……………………………………………………………11
四、政黨的意識型態、滙率制度和中央銀行的獨立性……………………………13
參、資料來源、變數定義與研究方法 ………………………………………17
一、資料來源與變數定義………………………………………‥………………17
二、變數定義………………………………………………………………………18
三、研究模型………………………………………………………………………26
肆、研究結果分析…………………………………………………………………29
伍、結論………………………………………………………………………………33
參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………35
附錄…………………………………………………………………………………44

圖 次
圖一 諾藍光譜……………………..…………………………………………………...7

表 次
表一 本研究所採用各項變數的資料來源整理如下………………...…………….…17
表二 OECD等21個國家於樣本期間中央銀行總裁的更替情形……………………20
表三 央行滙率制度的選擇與政黨偏好是否一致的分析……..…………………….22
表四 滙率制度違逆的次數統計分析……..………………………………………….23
表五 中央銀行的匯率制度與政黨偏好不一致與央行總裁正長庚替之對應關係....30
表六 中央銀行的匯率制度與政黨偏好不一致與央行總裁不正常更替之對應關係.32

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