近年來，系統方法已被公認為有效規劃海洋保護區的工具之一，但是，設立海洋保護區卻仍存在著許多動態且複雜的不確定因素，其中包含海洋保護區實際成效、社區與相關利益者（Stakeholder）是否支持海洋保護區政策的實施等。然而，目前國際間有許多研究，使用系統方法與空間優化模式（Spatial Optimization Model）卻只可提供使用者「現階段」最佳海洋保護區空間配置方式，決策者無法知道未來此海洋保護區實質上的效益，利益相關者也無法得知自身利益在未來是否會受到影響。調適性管理（Adaptive Management）則被視為一個很好的海洋保護區管理方法，有助於決策者在處理海洋保護區實施中，環境與生態之間存在的不確定性因素，以達到永續發展之目的。但是，傳統的調適性管理必需蒐集長期的監測資料與實際海洋保護區管理結果之回饋，作為改善目前管理方法的基礎，因而提升海洋保護區規劃的困難度與失敗率。故本研究使用空間動態生態模式（Spatial Dynamics Model for Ecosystem）模擬代替需要長期監測才可獲得的生態調查資料，並且整合空間優化模式化為長期海洋保護區規劃之整合模式，並且提出兩種整合方式。最後，本研究比較不同整合方式的差異，評估不同海洋保護區空間配置方式以及不同的海洋保護區規劃策略所可以帶來的效益，找出以永續發展為前提下，最佳的海洋保護區配置方式，提供決策者與利益相關者更完整的海洋保護區資訊與未來預期成果，提升海洋保護區規劃與實施的成功率，以供未來台灣海洋保護區劃設之參考。

The systematic approach had been recognized as one of the most effective tools for Marine Protected Area (MPA) planning. But MPA planning still exist many uncertainty in the real world, ex. the effect of MPA planning and the support of stakeholders or neighbors. In recent years, there are many researches using Spatial Optimization Model for MPA planning, but only can provide “current optimal results” for decision marker. Decision marker couldn’t know the real effectiveness of MPA in the future, and stakeholders also couldn’t know their benefit would be affected or not. The Adaptive Management is a good management way for MPA, it can help decision marker deal with the uncertainty of environment and ecology in MPA management for sustainable development. But traditional Adaptive Management have to collect long term observer data and the feedback from MPA in order to improve MPA management. Therefore, the Adaptive Management is difficult to implement. In this study, we integrate the Spatial Dynamics Model for Ecosystem and the Spatial Optimization Model as an Integrative Spatial Optimization and Dynamic Model for MPA Planning. This Integrative model not only can generate the optimal spatial MPA allocation for user, but also can provide the social economic and ecological assessment for MPA establish. The decision marker and the stakeholders can using these assessments from our model to discuss witch MPA planning could share a common interest for sustainment. In the result, we demonstrate two integrate methods and compare the effectiveness in different MPA spatial planning for long term MPA planning In Nanwan bay.

論文審定書 i
摘要 ii
Abstract iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
1、前言 1
1.1、研究動機 1
1.2、研究目的 4
1.3、研究流程 6
1.4、研究範圍 8
2、文獻回顧 9
2.1、空間優化模式之研究 9
2.2、空間動態生態模式之研究 11
2.3、整合空間優化模式與空間動態生態模式之研究 14
3、研究方法 17
3.1、空間動態生態模式 18
3.1.1、Ecospace 18
3.1.2、系統動力學 20
3.2、南灣空間動態生態模式之應用 25
3.3、空間優化模式 27
4、模式整合架構與建置 32
4.1、整合空間優化與空間動態生態模式之架構 32
4.2、海洋保護區成效指標 36
4.3、南灣空間動態生態模式之驗證 38
5、結果與討論 43
5.2、南灣海洋保護區長期整合模式 45
5.3、南灣海洋保護區調適整合模式 51
5.4、南灣海洋保護區政策分析 59
6、結論與建議 65
6.1結論 65
6.2建議 67
參考文獻 69

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