冷戰後的世界產生許多對美國權力投射能力重要的新挑戰。美國原有的全球軍事基 地網，在許多案例中，從針對以蘇聯為首，擴展到對全球其他地區的防禦與攻擊能 力。美國（執行其全球軍事網的有效利器）依賴於融合許多各式各樣且又多變的港 口和飛機場之建立及其彼此間組合起來之戰力，比如説在 1990-91 年波斯灣戰爭以 及 2003 伊拉克戰爭，其於美國可能的敵人，如中國和伊朗等，這些國家並不願意 讓美國免費取得（戰略上）使用海洋、空域、及其他空間，以有效執行全球軍事基
地網的行動力。所以在西太平洋的部份，中國追求反進入(anti-access)和區域封鎖行 動(area-denial)的計劃，發展出嚇阻美國無法於各區域間恣意行動的阻力。
本篇論文將檢視美國對於中國成長中之能力及其對美國於西太平洋軍事運作潛在影 響之觀點，透過對部分具有權威性的正式或非正式的官方文件之檢視，檢閱本文中 所要探討美國關於中國軍事成長對其（全球軍事基地網）之軍事影響的看法。本篇 論文嘗試建立全面且較新的關於融合從美國的觀點反觀中國的反進入和區域封鎖之 行動能力，包括中國的反艦彈道導彈， 常規彈道和巡航導彈及其對美國在西太平 洋最重要基地之影響，論文分析範圍尚涵蓋中國最新的軍事設備，包括中國第一航 空母艦與隱形戰鬥機。
在結論處，本篇論文歸結出美國於軍事上以降低對中國的反進入和區域封鎖行動發 展的反應，但中國快速的軍事發展（包括另一些反進入和區域封鎖行動能力的發展） 在可預期的未來不可能呈現停滯的狀態。所以美國仍需要發展與實施具有效力的聯 合反制進入和區域封鎖行動的概念，以及具有正確的軍事能力之組合以執行此新戰 略思維的操作。

The post-Cold War world has created a number of important new challenges to the United States’ power projection capabilities. The worldwide network of bases and stations that enabled the U.S. to contain the Soviet Union have, in many cases, been made into liabilities. U.S. dependence on fixed, vulnerable ports and airfields for the buildup of combat power, as seen in the 1990-91 Gulf War and 2003 Iraq War, have shown potential foes like China and Iran that it doesn’t pay to allow penalty-free access and freedom of action in maritime, air, and space commons. In the Western Pacific, China has pursued an anti-access and area-denial (A2/AD) strategy, developing capabilities designed to deny U.S. freedom of movement in the region.
This study examines U.S. perceptions of China’s growing A2/AD capabilities and their implications for U.S. military operations in the Western Pacific through the analysis of authoritative official and unofficial U.S. documents and studies. This work establishes a comprehensive, up-to-date picture of Chinese A2/AD capabilities through American eyes, updating previous comprehensive works in key areas such as the status of China’s anti-ship ballistic missile, conventional ballistic and cruise missile capabilities and their implications for key U.S. facilities in the region, and new technology and platforms like China’s first aircraft carrier and stealth aircraft.
The thesis concludes that the U.S. has been slow in reacting to Chinese A2/AD developments and that it is unlikely that continued Chinese military modernization (including the refinement and development of additional A2/AD capabilities) will end in the near future. For the U.S., this means that development and implementation of a truly joint concept for counter-A2/AD operations, as well as the right mix of military capabilities to carry out such operations, cannot be delayed any longer.

I.INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1
A.THE END OF THE COLD WAR, U.S. “DECLINE”, AND THE RISE OF CHINA: THE BIRTH OF “ANTI-ACCESS” ..............................1
B.STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .............................................................4
1.U.S. Perceptions of Chinese A2/AD Capabilities ..............................5
2.Specific Chinese A2/AD Capabilities Not Fully Integrated Into
Comprehensive Treatments ................................................................5
3.U.S. Counter-A2/AD Operational Concepts and
Countermeasures .................................................................................6
4.Summary...............................................................................................6
C.BACKGROUND AND NEED ........................................................................7
1.U.S. Perceptions of Chinese A2/AD Capabilities ..............................9
2.Specific Chinese A2/AD Capabilities Not Fully Integrated Into
Comprehensive Treatments ..............................................................10
3.U.S. Counter-A2/AD Operational Concepts and
Countermeasures ...............................................................................10
D.PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ........................................................................11
E.RESEARCH QUESTION .............................................................................11
F.SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FIELD...............................................................11
G.DEFINITIONS ...............................................................................................12
1.Anti-access ..........................................................................................12
2.Area-denial .........................................................................................12
3.Asymmetric.........................................................................................13
4.Battle network ....................................................................................13
5.Boost-glide missile ..............................................................................13
6.Contingency ........................................................................................14
7.Defense transformation .....................................................................14
8.Initial Operational Capability ..........................................................14
9.Open-source........................................................................................15
10.Probability of kill (Pk)........................................................................15
H.LIMITATIONS ..............................................................................................15
I.METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................16
J.THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...............................................................16
K.THESIS OVERVIEW ...................................................................................18
II.REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE .........................................................................20
A.INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................20
1.Research Problem ..............................................................................20
2.Three Areas of Focus .........................................................................20
B.LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................20
1.U.S. Perceptions of Chinese A2/AD Capabilities ............................20
b.Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States (2007) .......................................................................................25
c.Why AirSea Battle? (2010) .....................................................30
2.Chinese A2/AD Capabilities Not Fully Integrated Into Comprehensive Studies .....................................................................34 a. Using the Land to Control the Sea: Chinese Analysts
Consider the Antiship Ballistic Missile (2009).......................34 b. China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike
Capability: The Anti-ship Ballistic Missile Challenge to U.S. Maritime Operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond (2009) .........................................................................41
c.ASBM Targeting and Cueing Systems ...................................49 d. The PRC’s Evolving Conventional Missile Forces as
A2/AD Assets ...........................................................................53
3.U.S. Counter-A2/AD Operational Concepts and Countermeasures ...............................................................................63 a. Meeting the Anti-Access and Area-Denial Challenge
(2003) .......................................................................................64 b. Why AirSea Battle? (2010) .....................................................78 c. AirSea Battle: A Point-of-Departure Operational Concept
(2010) .......................................................................................80
C.CHAPTER SUMMARY................................................................................88
III.CHINESE A2/AD CAPABILITIES: A COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINATION ........................................................................................................91
A.INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................91
1.A Framework for Assessment ...........................................................91
B.AIR ASPECTS OF CHINESE A2/AD .........................................................92
1.People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)...............................92
2.People’s Liberation Army Navy Air Force (PLANAF) ..................95
3.PLA Air Defenses ...............................................................................98
C.MARITIME DIMENSIONS OF CHINESE A2/AD.................................102
1.The PLAN Submarine Force ..........................................................104
2.Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs) .............................................108
3.Naval Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs) ....................................109
4.Maritime Surveillance Networks ....................................................110
D.MISSILES IN PRC A2/AD .........................................................................111
1.Ballistic Missiles ...............................................................................111
2.Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs)..........................................112
E.CHINA's “COUNTER-BATTLE NETWORK” CAPABILITIES AS A2/AD ASSETS ............................................................................................113
1.Counter-space capabilities ..............................................................113
2.Computer Network Operations (CNO) .........................................115
F.CHAPTER SUMMARY..............................................................................117
1.A Comprehensive Picture of Chinese A2/AD Capabilities ..........117
IV.IMPLICATIONS OF THE PERCEIVED PRC ANTI-ACCESS THREAT TO U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC...............121
A.INTRODUCTION........................................................................................121
1.Research Generates Questions........................................................121
B.IMPLICATIONS OF PLA AIR A2/AD CAPABILITIES .......................121
1.Proximity is Key ...............................................................................121
2.J-20: An Airborne Game-Changer?...............................................122
3.Will U.S. UCAS Live Up to the Hype?...........................................122
C.IMPLICATIONS OF PLA MARITIME A2/AD CAPABILITIES ........123
1.The Original Game-Changer ..........................................................123
2.Submarines: The “Poor Man’s A2/AD Weapon” .........................123
D.IMPLICATIONS OF PLA MISSILE FORCE A2/AD CAPABILITIES ...........................................................................................124
1.Whither Kadena? .............................................................................124
2.Hafa Adai: Guam as “The” Pacific Base?......................................124
E.IMPLICATIONS OF PLA COUNTER-BATTLE NETWORK A2/AD CAPABILITIES ...........................................................................................125
1.E.T. No Phone Home? .....................................................................125
2.Patriotic Hackers Unite! ..................................................................126
F.OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF PLA A2/AD CAPABILITIES ................127
1.It’s the Politics, Stupid.....................................................................127
2.CPGS: Reach Out and Touch Someone ........................................128
G.CHAPTER SUMMARY..............................................................................130
V. CO CLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................132
A. CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................132
B. RECOMMENDATIONS.............................................................................133
1. Invest in Passive Defenses ...............................................................133
2. Expand and Refine AirSea Battle...................................................134
3. Develop Unmanned Systems ...........................................................135
C. CLOSING THOUGHTS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER
RESEARCH .................................................................................................136
1. Further Research .............................................................................137

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