緬甸民主轉型不同於當今世界主流政治環境，是一個自上而下的改革歷程。西方諺語有，「羅馬非一日而成」，畢竟緬甸國防軍隊（官方音譯為塔瑪都）退居幕後已有數年。世人不禁產生這樣的疑問：緬甸的民主轉型是如何發生的呢？而這樣的轉型又會將緬甸引向何處？
「管束下的民主路線圖」作為新憲法開始發揮功用，並且產生以此為指導的普選。2015年大選是2008年憲法實施以來的第二次普選，更是2011年文人政府成立以來的第一次普選。可以說，這是緬甸主要政黨第一次的全面交鋒，也使得緬甸民眾切切實實感受到了國家民主轉型的信心。
本文採用闡釋性研究路徑和訪談法，聚焦於緬甸轉型的路徑方向以及2015年大選在其扮演的角色，另外，本文也會探討緬甸民眾對於此次選舉的心理轉折。實地調研和定性訪談旨在確保操作流程的意義性，以便更深入地瞭解和洞察緬甸當前政治。緬甸的選舉建成的確給予這個國家民主化的萌芽，但不幸的是，美好的萌芽很可能被殘酷的政治事實所扼殺。畢竟過度型政體仍然無可避免地烙上舊有政體的印記。

Myanmar's transition is a top-down process of reform, unusual for the current global political climate. Developments did not come out of nowhere; the Tatmandaw had been preparing to step back for many years. The Roadmap to Discipline-flourishing Democracy brought into play a new constitution, and with that, general elections. The 2015 General Elections were the second elections held under the 2008 Constitution and the first since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011. It was the first time that all of the country's main political parties competed and people actually felt confident about change. This interpretive research is drawing on recent interviews and aims to shed light not only on the direction of the transition and the role of the latest elections in this process, but also on how people of Myanmar themselves understand their current politics. The goal of the fieldwork and qualitative interviews was to make sense of the undergoing processes in the country and provide and insight into current Burmese politics. In the build-up to the elections there was a flowering of political hope, however, expectations are likely to be dashed against hard political reality. Transitional regimes are inherently messy with its institutions still bearing traces of the previous political reality.

Table of Contents


Dissertation Validation Letter......................................................................................... i
Acknowledgements......................................................................................................... ii
Abstract (Chinese).......................................................................................................... iii
Abstract (English).......................................................................................................... iv

CHAPTER ONE: Introduction 1
1.1. BACKGROUND 1
1.2. MOTIVATION 4
1.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 5
1.4. RESEARCH APPROACH 7
1.5. RESEARCH METHODS 10
1.6. CHAPTER ARRANGEMENT 15
1.7. RESEARCH LIMITATION 16
1.8. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION 16
1.9. LITERATURE REVIEW 17
1.9.1. Democracy, Dictatorship, and Elections 17
1.9.2. Myanmar's Path to Change 28

CHAPTER TWO: Regime Transition and Election Theories 37
2.1. DEMOCRACY 38
2.2. DICTATORSHIP 44
2.3. HYBRID REGIMES 47
2.4. REGIME TRANSITIONS 52
2.5. ELECTIONS 55

CHAPTER THREE: Myanmar's Top-Down Transition Process 57
3.1. THE ROADMAP TO A DISCIPLINE-FLOURISHING DEMOCRACY 58
3.2. THE FLAWED BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA 61
3.3. CHANGES UNDER THEIN SEIN 63
3.4. THE REASONS BEHIND THE BIG CHANGE 72
3.5. COMPARISON WITH INDONESIA 76
3.6. PEOPLE'S PERCEPTIONS OF THE UNDERGOING PROCESSES 77

CHAPTER FOUR: Myanmar's 2015 General Elections 81
4.1. LEGAL FRAMEWORK 83
4.2. ELECTORAL SYSTEM 84
4.3. ELECTION MANAGEMENT 87
4.4. ELECTION CAMPAIGNING 89
4.5. POLLING 95
4.6. ELECTION RESULTS 97

CHAPTER FIVE: The Role of the 2015 Elections in the Transition Process 105
5.1. ELECTION COMPARISON: 1990, 2010, 2015 105
5.2. THE 2015 ELECTIONS' SIGNIFICANCE 107
5.3. MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT 110
5.4. DEMOCRACY IN BURMESE CONTEXT: TRANSITION TO WHAT? 113

CHAPTER SIX: Conclusion 115

APPENDICES 123
APPENDIX 1: Overview of Modern Burmese History 123
APPENDIX 2: Myanmar Political System under the 2008 Constitution 126
APPENDIX 3: Overview of Elections in Burma/Myanmar 129
APPENDIX 4: List of Interviewees 130
APPENDIX 5: Informed Consent Form 132
APPENDIX 6: Questionnaire (complex) 133
APPENDIX 7: Questionnaire (simple) 134
APPENDIX 8: List of Parties Represented in the Parliament 135

BIBLIOGRAPHY 137

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