論文摘要

近年來台灣電子業的蓬勃發展,以垂直分工為產業型態其中以半導體產業為龍頭產業,其對下游產業:電腦週邊設備產業、通訊設備產業及消費性電子產業以探討半導體產業對其所造成的影響,以及彼此之間的互動關係。
本文研究引入動態要素需求模型,考慮準固定要素的調整情形,假設準固定要素在生產上具有一期落後效果,也就是說準固定要素在投入與顯現生產效果間會有調整和落後的情形。動態的要素需求模型是假設產業以極小化預期未來生產成本貼現值為目標,在生產對偶性的基礎下,利用標準化控制理論以得出準固定要素的封閉解。在計量方法上,本文採用充分訊息最大概似估計法(Full-Information Maximum Likelihood)來進行方程式估計, 透過此種方法,本文將分析半導體產業的研究發展產生的外溢效果對於其下游產業的影響,以及分析對產生成長的影響。

none

目 錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與全文架構 2
第二章 我國電子集群產業 3
第一節 我國電子集群產業研究範圍 3
第二節 電子集群之各產業概況 3
第三節 電子集群產業與其他產業關聯 6
第四節 電子集群產業與國家競爭力關係 6
第三章 相關文獻回顧 14
第一節 相關理論基礎 14
第二節 效果變數之衡量 16
第四章 基礎理論模型與實證模型
第一節 基礎理論模型 18
第二節 實證模型 21
第五章 實證分析 26
第一節 變數設定與資料分析 26
第二節 估計與實證分析結果 27
第六章 結論 38
參考文獻 40
附錄 43

參考文獻
中文部份

莊奕琦 、 許碧峰 (1999), “研究發展對生產力的貢獻及產業間的外溢效果—台灣製造業實証,” 經濟論文, 27, 3, 407-432.

蔡光第、楊浩彥 (1996),“多層次巢覆式 R&D 外溢效果與其對台灣製造業不同部門之貢獻”經濟論文叢刊, 24, 1, 29-60.

蔡蕙安 (1999), “靜態與非靜態預期下產業動態模型之研究︰以台灣電信業為例,”亞太經濟管理評論, 第三卷第一期, 21-40頁。
2000年半導體年鑑,行政院主計處。

1999年行政院製造業普查之產業關聯編制報告,行政院主計處。

英文部分

Berndt, E.R., C.J. Morrison and G.C. Watkins, G. (1981), “Dynamic models of energy demand: An assessment and comparison,” Measuring and Modeling Natural Resource Substitution (ed. E. Berndt and B. Field), MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts.

Bernstein, J.I. (1986) “Dynamic Factor Demand and Adjustment Costs: An Analysis of Bell Canada’s Technology,” Carleton Industrial Organization Research Unit working paper series.

Bernstein, J.I. (1988) “Cost of Production, Intra- and Interindustry R&D Spillovers: Canadian Evidence,” Canadian Journal of Economics, 21, 324-347.

Bernstein, J.I. and M.I. Nadiri (1988) “Interindustry R&D Spillovers, and the Rates of Return and Production in High-Tech Industries,” American Economic Review, 78(2), 429-434.

Denny, M., M.A. Fuss, and L. Waverman (1981) “Substitution Possibilities for Energy: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Manufacturing Industries,” Measuring and Modeling Natural Resource Substitution (ed. E. Berndt and B. Field ), MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts.

Epstein, L.G. and A. Yatchew (1985), “The Empirical Determination of Technology and Expectations: A Simplified Procedure,” Journal of Economics, 27, 235-258.

Gould, J.P. (1968) “Adjustment Costs in the Theory of Investment of the Firm,” The Review of Economic Studies, 35, 1, 47-56.

Madan D.P. and I.R. Prucha (1989) “A Note on the Estimation of Nonsymmetric Dynamic Factor Demand Models,” Journal of Econometrics, 42, 275-283.

Mamuneas T.P. and M.I. Nadiri (1996) “Public R&D Policies and Cost Behavior of the U.S. Manufacturing Industries,” Journal of Public Economics, 63, 1, 57-81.

Mohnen, P.A. and N. Lepine (1991) “R&D, R&D Spillovers and Payments for Technology : Canadian Evidence,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2, 1, 213-228.

Mohnen, P.A., M.I. Nadiri, and I.R. Prucha (1986) “R&D Production Structure and Rates of Return in the U.S., Japanese and German Manufacturing Sectors,” European Economic Review, 30,749-771, North-Holland.

Nadiri, M.I. and S. Kim (1996) “R&D, Production Structure and Productivity Growth: A Comparison of the US, Japanese and Korean Manufacturing Sectors,” NBER Working Paper, No. W5506.

Nadiri, M.I. and B. Nandi (1996) “The Changing Structure of Cost and Demand for the U.S. Telecommunications Industry,” NBER working paper NO. 5820.

Nadiri, M.I. and M.S. Rosen (1969), “Interrelated Factor Demand Function,” American Economic Review, 59,457-471.

Nadiri, M.I. and I.R. Prucha (1986) “A Comparison of Alternative Methods for The Estimation of Dynamic Factor Demand Models Under Non-Static Expectations,” Journal of Economics, 33, 187-211.

Nadiri, M.I. and I.R. Prucha (1989) “Dynamic Factor Demand Models, Productivity Measurement, and Rates of Return: Theory and An Empirical Application to the U.S. Bell System,” NBER working paper NO.3041.

Nadiri M.I. and I.R. Prucha (1990a) “Comparison and Analysis of Productivity Growth and R&D Investment in the Electrical Machinery Industries of the United States and Japan,” Productivity Growth in Japan and the United States (ed.) C.R. Hulten , University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Nadiri, M.I. and I.R. Prucha (1990b) “Dynamic Factor Demand Models, Productivity Measurement, and Rates of Return: Theory and Application to the US Bell System,” Structural Change and Economic dynamics, 1, 2, 263-289.

Nadiri, M.I. and I.R. Prucha (1999), “Dynamic Factor Demand Models and Productivity Analysis,” NBER working paper NO.7079.

Nelson, R. R. (1982) “The Role of Knowledge in R&D Efficiency,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97, 453-470.

Prucha, I.R. and M.I. Nadiri (1986) “Formulation and Estimation of Dynamic Factor Demand Equations under Non-Static Expectations: A Finite Horizon Model,” Journal of Economics, 33, 187-211.

Srinivasan, S. (1996) “Estimation of own R&D, R&D Spillovers and Exogenous Technical Change Effects in some US High-Technology Industries,” University of Southampton, Discussion Paper in Economics and Econometrics, 9607.

Tan, Lin-Ti and A.R. Hwang “Import Technology and R&D in Taiwan Electronic Industry,” Review of Development Economics, forthcoming 2000.