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博碩士論文 etd-1117108-202429 詳細資訊
Title page for etd-1117108-202429
論文名稱
Title
中共核武戰略的現在與未來
The present time and future of PRC's nuclear weapons strategy
系所名稱
Department
畢業學年期
Year, semester
語文別
Language
學位類別
Degree
頁數
Number of pages
238
研究生
Author
指導教授
Advisor
召集委員
Convenor
口試委員
Advisory Committee
口試日期
Date of Exam
2008-11-07
繳交日期
Date of Submission
2008-11-17
關鍵字
Keywords
首先使用、核武戰略、威懾戰略、太空戰略
nuclear weapons strategy, deterrence strategy
統計
Statistics
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The thesis/dissertation has been browsed 5662 times, has been downloaded 0 times.
中文摘要
目前文獻多注重在中共核武發展與使用原則上,例如在美國片面退出反彈道導彈條約、建構彈道導彈防禦系統、重視核武與非核武的打擊能力、及執意發展太空武器之後,這些文獻在審視中共核威懾戰略有效性時,多就核武的質與量、核武使用原則及威懾戰略來評估,很少就整個核武戰略來評估。
本文主要是分析中共核武戰略,包含核武政策與使用原則、核威懾戰略、打擊方式與目標、指揮與控制的方式及核軍備控制。另外本文藉著分析主要國家核武戰略的相似處、內部與外部因素對核武戰略的影響、挑戰中共核武戰略的文獻、及中共太空軍事發展與核武戰略的關係,來預測中共未來的核武戰略。
Abstract
Recent research literatures focused on the development and principles of using nuclear weapons in People Republic of China(PRC). For instance, the one-sidely withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty by the United States, the construction of ballistic missile defense system, the value of capability of hitting power for both nuclear and non-nuclear weapons, and persistence of outer space weapons development. Most of them studied the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and highlighted the quality and quantity of nuclear weapons, the principle of using nuclear weapons, and the deterrence strategy, rare did research focus on the integrative nuclear weapons strategy.
The study aims to analyze PRC nuclear weapons strategy including nuclear weapons policies, the principles of use, approaches of deterrence, approaches and objects of hitting, methods of commend and control, and policies of controlling nuclear arms. Moreover, the study foresees the future of PRC nuclear weapons strategy based on the analysis of the similarity of the development of nuclear weapons strategy in main countries on the global, the influence of inner and outer factors to nuclear weapons strategy, the situation of PRC’s abiding by international regimes about nuclear weapons, related research literatures with regard to the challenge of PRC nuclear weapons strategy, and the associations between both the development of outer space military and nuclear weapons strategy.
目次 Table of Contents
第一章緒論 …………………………………………1
第一節、研究動機與目的…………………………1
壹、研究動機 …………………………………1
貳、研究目的 …………………………………6
第二節、文獻回顧與探討………………………‥8
壹、國外文獻……………………………………8
貳、中共文獻 …………………………………12
參、國內文獻 …………………………………16
第三節、研究途徑與方法…………………………20
壹、研究途徑……………………………………20
貳、研究方法……………………………………24
第四節、研究範圍與名詞界定 ……………………27
壹、研究範圍……………………………………27
貳、名詞界定……………………………………27
第五節、研究流程與章節安排 ……………………30
壹、研究流程……………………………………30
貳、章節安排……………………………………32
第二章 中共核武戰略發展的沿革…………………35
第一節 核武戰略形成之背景 ……………………35
第二節 中共核武戰略的發展 ……………………57
第三章 中共現有的核武戰略………………………69
第一節 思維與政策 ………………………………71
第二節 核武力量 …………………………………80
第三節 核武戰略的內容 …………………………90
第四章 中共核武戰略面臨的挑戰…………………104
第一節 戰略與原則的爭辯 ………………………105
第二節 核軍備控制的隱憂 ………………………124
第五章 中共核武戰略的未來 ………………………144
第一節 太空戰略下的核武戰略 …………………145
第二節 內與外部環境影響下的核武戰略 ………165
第三節 理性途徑下未來核武戰略的走向 ………178
第六章 結論 …………………………………………196
第一節 研究發現 …………………………………197
第二節 研究建議 …………………………………209
參考文獻 ……………………………………………211
英文部分 ……………………………………………211
中文部分 ……………………………………………224
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(二)期刊
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(三)報刊
“ 印度積極軍事轉型 肆應區域安全威脅,”青年日報,
2008年2月26日,版6。
“ 印度將試射烈火三型飛彈 嚇阻中共,” 青年日報,
2008年5月5日, 版5。
“ 印度新導彈 射程涵蓋京、滬,” 青年日報,2008年6
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“ 普丁高調挑釁 復產核彈戰機,” 蘋果日報,2007年8
月23日,A20 版。

(四)網路
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言,” 中華人民共和國外交部,2007年10月22日,
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“2006年中國國防,” 中華人民共和國國務院,2006年
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“中國的軍控、裁軍與防擴散努力白皮書,” 中華人民
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“ 2006年中國的航天,” 中華人民共和國國務院,
2006年10月21日,http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2006-
10/12/content_410824.htm
“中國代表團團長成競業大使在2006年聯合國裁軍審議
委員會一般性辯論上的發言,” 中華人民共和國外交
部,2006年4月10日,
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/
jks/jksfyywj/t245613.htm.
“中國代表團關於實現核裁軍和防止核武器擴散目標的建
議,” 中華人民共和國外交部,2006月4月24日,
http:// www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/jks/jksfyywj/t248956.htm.
“中華人民共和國參加的軍控、裁軍和防擴散條約-核領

域,” 中華人民共和國外交部, http://big5.fmprc.gov.cn/gate/big5/
www1.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/jks/jkcjty/t228262.htm.
“防止在外空放置武器、對外空物體使用或威脅使用武力條約草案,”
中華人民共和國外交部,2008年2月12日,http://
www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/jks/jksfyywj/t406997.htm.
“中國代表團在第62屆聯大關於外空問題的專題發言,”中華人民共和國外交部,2007年10月22日, http://
www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/jks/jksfyywj/t380425.htm.
“國務院關於修改〈中華人民共和國核出口管制條例〉的
決定,”中華人民共和國商務部,2006年11月9日,
http://www.
mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/b/g/200612/20061204176773.html.
“中華人民共和國導彈及相關物項和技術出口管制條例,” 中華人民共和國駐德國大使館,2002年8月22日,http://
www.china-botschaft.de/chn/zt/fksyckgz/xgfg/t129468.htm.
“胡錦濤:用科學發展觀推動國防和軍隊建設發
展,”中國網,2006年3月12日,
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/txt/2006-03/12/content_6151050.htm.
“中共黨章修正案獲通過,科學發展觀被寫入黨章,”
中國網,2007年10月21日,
http://big5.china.com.cn/17da/2007-10/21/
content_9100874.htm.
“中國主張安理會改革方案至少得90%會員國支持,”
中國網,2005年4月23日,
http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/
zhuanti/ggrqip/448891.htm.
“胡錦濤在中國共產黨第十七次全國代表大會上的工作
報告(全文),” 中國人民網(人民日報),2007
年10月25日, http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/104019/104099/6429414.html.

“江澤民胡錦濤出席軍委擴大會議發表重要講話,” 新
華網,2004年9月21日,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter
/2004-09/21/content_1999548.htm.
“胡錦濤簽署發布中國人民解放軍司令部條例,” 新華
網,2006年3月19日,
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news/
xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-03/19/
content_4318189.htm.
“ 張炎談有關中國為何未參加防擴散安全倡議問
題,”新華網,2005年9月1日,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/video/2005-09/01/
content_3429111.htm.
“ 俄空軍司令:可能向中國出售戰略和遠程轟炸機,”新
華網,2005年01月14日,
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/2005-01/14/content_2459041.htm.
“美宣佈退出反彈道導彈條約,” BBC中文網,2001年
12月13日,http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_1700000/newsid_1709400/1709468.stm.
“中國開採春曉油氣田 日本擬抗議,” BBC中文網,
2006年8月5日,
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_5240000/newsid_5247900/5247930.stm,
2008/10/14.
歐錫富, “中國大陸尋找海油糾紛多,”中華民國大陸
工作委員會網站,2005年3月9日,
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mlpolicy/mwreport/94/9403.pdf, 2008/10/14.
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