本研究分別根據已開發以及開發中樣本國家於 1970 年至 2008 年之年資料為實證樣本，主要利用二種不同之計量方法來探討全球化與實質產出/經濟成長之長期關係。本研究首先以時間序列 (time series) 分析進行觀測，運用Xiao (2009) 的Quantile共整合模型 (quantile cointegration model) 衡量全球化與實質產出的非線性長期關係。研究證明共整合向量存在時變性 (time-varying)，隱含兩者的長期關係會由於潛在的外在衝擊而隨時調整。
其次在追蹤資料 (panel data) 的架構下，本研究將結構性改變 (structural break) 的因素納入實證模型再次檢驗二者間的非線性關係。根據Westerlund (2006) 的Panel結構性改變共整合檢定 (panel cointegration test with breaks) 的結果，發現不同群組樣本之下實質產出皆分別與總體全球化及社會全球化存在共整合關係。此外，從動態最小平方法 (dynamic OLS) 之估計結果可知，全球化過程中所釋出的直接效果皆對實質產出有正面的影響。而全球化透過結構性改變所衍生之間接效果則對已開發 (開發中) 樣本國家群組產生負向 (正向) 衝擊，個別國家/群組在全球化過程中面臨相同事件的衝擊之下也有不同之表現。綜整二種效果發現總體全球化對已開發國家實質產出的正向效果最高，而社會全球化則是增進開發中國家經濟發展的主要因素。

This dissertation includes two different empirical models about the economic growth and globalization in developed and developing countries from 1970 to 2008. First, we apply the quantile cointegration model provided by Xiao (2009) to examine the non-linear relationship between economic growth and globalization. Our empirical findings provide not only strong evidence that the cointegrating coefficients follow the time-varying process, but also the viewpoint of a long-run approach that overall globalization and their three dimensions act as engines of economic growth.
Second, we adopt an advanced panel cointegration method which incorporates multiple structural breaks to examine the growth-globalization relationship. Differing from the weak outcomes of the traditional panel ointegration test without breaks, our findings provide strong evidence that overall globalization and its social dimension are cointegrated with RGDP both in developed and developing samples, and most of the structural break points are discovered in several main events. In addition, in evaluating whether or not the structural breaks affect the RGDP through globalization, we discover that the globalization have a directly positive impact on RGDP but indirectly exhibit negative (positive) impacts on real output via the channel of globalization in developed (developing) samples. Also, Different countries/groups reflect the different outcomes from the common shock of break event under the process of globalization. For the entire performance, the overall globalization brings the most positive effect on the real output in developed samples, and the social globalization is the main factor of promoting the economic development in developing samples.

1. Overview............................................................................... 1
2. The Relationship between Globalization and Economic Growth in Quantile Cointegration Analysis......... 5
2.1. Introduction ..................................................................... 5
2.2. Literatures Review......................................................... 7
2.3. Methodology.................................................................. 12
2.4. Empirical Results........................................................ 15
2.5. Concluding Remarks ................................................. 24
3. Globalization, Economic Growth, and Structural Breaks: A Panel Analysis ....................................................... 43
3.1. Introduction ................................................................... 43
3.2. Literatures Review....................................................... 45
3.3. Methodology............................................................................... 46
3.4. Empirical Results........................................................ 58
3.5. Concluding Remarks ................................................. 73
4. Conclusion........................................................................ 95
4.1. Discussion.................................................................... 95
4.2. Research Limitation.................................................... 97

Appendix .................................................................................... 99
Reference................................................................................ 100

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